Geografie 2014, 119, 240-258
Are there spatially contextual influences on voter behaviour even in a relatively nationalised party system? The case of Czechia
The paper discusses the contextual effects on voting behaviour. Part of the Czech professional literature concludes that spatial contextual effects on voting behaviour in Czechia are weak and that the spatial patterns of election results can be basically explained as a reflection of territorial differences in social structure, i.e. compositionally. This study examines the existence of contextual effects using spatially very detailed data. When the determinants of election results are studied at the municipal level by spatial statistical methods, areas of different size can be found in Czechia, in which election results can’t be explained by the composition of voters. Instead it becomes more appropriate to consider the contextual effects impacting on them. Some results of our analysis can be interpreted as a manifestation of neighbourhood effects, unambiguous confirmation of its existence, however, remains open.
Keywords
electoral behaviour, contextual effect, neighbourhood effect, ecological regression, Czechia.
