Geografie 2026, 131, 331-353
Pitfalls and methodological limits of population forecasting in small territorial units
Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Prague, Czechia
Received March 2026
Accepted June 2026
This article examines the methodological limits of population forecasting in small territorial units, particularly at the municipal level. It explains why local population forecasts cannot be treated as simple scaled-down versions of regional or national models and how their specific constraints can be addressed in forecasting practice. The article focuses on low counts of demographic events, migration volatility, spatial heterogeneity, and discrepancies between administratively registered residence and usual residence. The proposed framework combines the cohort-component model with typological differentiation of municipalities and a capacity-constrained approach to migration modelling, linking expected population change to the actual development capacity of the territory, particularly housing construction. The analysis shows that migration is the main source of uncertainty in local forecasts, while low event counts increase random variation in observed demographic structures and trends. Reliable local forecasting therefore requires specific treatment of uncertainty, migration assumptions grounded in actual territorial development capacity, and adaptation of selected forecasting procedures to local conditions.
Keywords
population forecasting, small territorial units, migration volatility, small numbers, housing unit method, municipal typology.
