Geografie 2026, 131, 1-26

https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie.2026.002

Flood frequency analysis of the Rasina River in Serbia

Ljiljana Stričević1ID, Nataša Martić-Bursać1ID, Milena Gocić1ID, Nikola Milentijević2ID, Marko Ivanović2ID

1University of Niš, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics, Department of Geography, Niš, Serbia
2University of Priština in Kosovska Mitrovica, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics, Department of Geography, Kosovska Mitrovica, Serbia

Received July 2025
Accepted February 2026

References

1. ACHARYA, B., JOSHI, B. (2020): Flood frequency analysis for an ungauged Himalayan river basin using different methods: a case study of Modi Khola, Parbat, Nepal. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 8, 2, 46−51. <https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/131092>
2. AHMAD, I., FAWAD, M., AKBAR, M., ABBAS, A. (2016): Regional frequency analysis of annual peak flows in Pakistan using linear combination of order statistics. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies,, 25, 6, 1−10. <https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/63782>
3. ALFIERI, L., BISSELINK, B., DOTTORI, F., NAUMANN, G., ROO, A., SALAMON, P., WYSER, K., FEYEN, L. (2017): Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world. Earth’s Future, 5, 171−182. <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485>
4. ALFIERI, L., FEYEN, L., SALAMON, P., THIELEN, J., BIANCHI, A., DOTTORI, F., BUREK, P. (2016): Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,16, 1401−1411. <https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016>
5. AMIRATAEE, B., MONTASERI, M. (2013): Evaluation of L-moment and ppcc method to determine the best regional distribution of monthly rainfall data: case study northwest of Iran. Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering, 7, 2, 247−252. <https://doi.org/10.4090/juee.2013.v7n2.247-252>
6. ANDERSON, S.T. (2019): Statistical L-moment and L-moment ratio estimation and their applicability in network analysis. PhD Dissertation, ir Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, USA.
7. ANGHEL, C.G., ILINCA, C. (2023): Predicting flood frequency with the LH-moments method: a case study of Prigor River, Romania. Water, 15, 1−33. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w15112077>
8. ANWAT, K.V., HIRE, S.P., PAWAR, V.U., GUNJAL, P.R. (2021): Analysis of magnitude and frequency of floods in the Damanganga basin: western India. Hydrospatial Analysis, 5, 1, 1−11. <https://doi.org/10.21523/gcj3.2021050101>
9. ARNELL, W.N., GOSLING, N.S. (2014): The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change, 1−16. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5>
10. BAUER, K., SAGA Development Team (2020): System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) – GIS software, http://www.saga-gis.org (18. 1. 2026).
11. BERTOLA, M., VIGLIONE, A., LUN, D., HALL, J., BLOSCHL, G. (2020): Flood trends in Europe: are changes in small and big floods different? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24, 1805−1822. <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020>
12. BEZAK, N., BRILLY, M., ŠRAJ, M. (2016): Flood frequency analyses, statistical trends and seasonality analyses of discharge data: a case study of the Litija station on the Sava River.Journal of Flood Risk Management, 9, 2, 154−168. <https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12118>
13. BLOSCHL, G., HALL, J., VIGLIONE, A., PERDIGAO, R. A. P., PARAJKA, J., MERZ, B., LUN, D., ARHEIMER, B., ARONICA, G. T., BILIBASHI, A. (2019): Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature, 573, 108−111. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6>
14. CORINE Land Cover database (CLC2012), European Commission.
15. DERAMAN, W.H.A.W., ABD MUTALIB, N.J., MUKHTAR, Z.N. (2017): Determination of return period for flood frequency analysis using normal and related distributions. IOP Conf. Series: Journal of Physics: Conf. Series 890, 1, 1−11. <https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/890/1/012162>
16. DIMITRIJEVIĆ, LJ. (2010): Hydro-geographical study of the Rasina River, Master thesis, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade.
17. DOMANSKI, P.D., JANKOWSKI, R., DZIUBA, K., GORA, R. (2023): Assessing control sustainability using L-moment ratio diagrams. Electronics, 12, 2377, 1−19. <https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics12112377>
18. DUBEY, A. (2014): Regional flood frequency analysis utilizing L-moments: a case study of Narmada basin. International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, 155−161.
19. ENGELAND, K., WILSON, D., BORSANYI, P., ROALD, L., HOLMQVIST, E. (2018): Use of historical data in flood frequency analysis: a case study for four catchments in Norway. Hydrology Research, 49, 2, 466−486. <https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.069>
20. ENGLAND, F.J., COHN, A.T., FABER, A.B., STEDINGER, R.J., THOMAS, O.W., BAKER, M., VEILLEUX, G.A., KIANG, E.J., MASON, R.R. (2019): Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency–Bulletin 17C. U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 4, U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. <https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5>
21. FISCHER, S., SCHUMANN, A.H. (2021): Multivariate flood frequency analysis in large river basins considering tributary impacts and flood types. Water Resources Research, 57,1−25. <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029029>
22. GAVRILOVIĆ, Lj. (1981): Floods in Serbia in the 20th century: causes and consequences. Special issues, 52. Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade.
23. GAVRILOVIĆ, Lj., DUKIĆ, D. (2002): Rivers of Serbia. Serbian State of Textbooks, Belgrade.
24. GAVRILOVIĆ, Lj., MILANOVIĆ-PEŠIĆ, A., UROŠEV, M. (2012): A hydrological analysis of the greatest floods in Serbia in the 1960−2010 period. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 7, 4,107–116.
25. GIELCZEWSKI, M., PINIEWSKI, M., DOMANSKI, P. (2022): Mixed statistical and data mining analysis of river flow and catchment properties at regional scale. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36, 2861−2882. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02169-3>
26. GNJATO, S., LEŠČEŠEN, I., POPOV, T., TRBIĆ, G. (2025): Comprehensive flood frequency analysis of major Sava River affluents in Bosnia and Herzegovina: risks, and implications for water resources management. IDŐJÁRÁS, 129, 2,161−175. <https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2025.2.3>
27. GREENWOOD, J.A., LANDWEHR, J.M., MATALAS, N.C., WALLIS, J.R. (1979): Probability weighted moments: definition and relation to parameters of several distributions expressable in inverse form. Water Resources Research, 15, 5, 1049−1054. <https://doi.org/10.1029/WR015i005p01049>
28. HALL, J., BLOSCHL, G. (2018): Spatial patterns and characteristics of flood seasonality in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 3883−3901. <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018>
29. HIGASHINO, M., STEFAN, G.H. (2019): Variability and change of precipitation and flood discharge in a Japanese river basin. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 21, 68−79. <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.003>
30. HOSKING, J.R.M. (1990): L-moments: Analysis and Estimation of Distributions using Linear Combinations of Order Statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 52, 1, 105−124. <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1990.tb01775.x>
31. HOSKING, J.R.M., WALLIS, J.R. (1993): Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis. Water Resources Research, 29, 2, 271−281. <https://doi.org/10.1029/92WR01980>
32. HOSKING, J.R.M., WALLIS, J.R. (1997): Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, UK. <https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511529443>
33. HU, L., NIKOLOPOULOS, E.I., MARRA, F., ANAGNOSTOU, E.N. (2023): Toward an improved estimation of flood frequency statistics from simulated flows. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16, 2, 1−13. <https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12891>
34. ILINCA, C., ANGHEL, C.G. (2022): Flood-frequency analysis for dams in Romania. Water, 14,18, 1−23. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182884>
35. IONITA, M., NAGAVCIUC, V. (2021): Extreme floods in the eastern part of Europe: large-scale drivers and associated impacts. Water, 1122, 1−26. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w13081122>
36. JONKMAN, S.N., CURRAN, A., BOUWER L.M. (2024): Floods have become less deadly: an analysis of global flood fatalities 1975−2022. Natural Hazards, 120, 6327–6342. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06444-0>
37. KENDALL, M.G. (1975): Rank correlation methods, 4th ed. Charles Griffin, London.
38. KHAN, Z., RAHMAN, A., KARIM, F. (2023): An assessment of uncertainties in flood frequency estimation using bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulation. Hydrology, 10, 1−16. <https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10010018>
39. KOUSAR, S., KHAN, R.A., HASSAN, U.M., NOREEN, Z., BHATTI, H.S. (2020): Some best-fit probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis of the Ume River. Journal of FloodRisk Management, 13, 1−11. <https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12640>
40. KOVAČEVIĆ, M., MARKOVIĆ, LJ., BABIĆ, L. (2014): Statistical modeling of extreme values: application to calculate extreme flow at River Rasina. Construction Materials and Structures, 57, 4, 21−29. <https://doi.org/10.5937/grmk1404021K>
41. KOVAČEVIĆ-MAJKIĆ, J., UROŠEV, M. (2014): Trends of mean annual and seasonal discharges of rivers in Serbia. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 64, 2, 143−160. <https://doi.org/10.2298/IJGI1402143K>
42. LEHMKUHL, F., SCHUTTRUMPF, H., SCHWARZBAUER, J., BRULL, C., DIETZE, M., LETMATHE, P., VOLKER, C., HOLLERT, H. (2022): Assessment of the 2021 summer flood in central Europe. Environmental Sciences Europe, 34, 1, 1−6. <https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-022-00685-1>
43. LEŠČEŠEN, I., DOLINAJ, D. (2019): Regional flood frequency analysis of the Pannonian Basin. Water, 11, 1−15. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w11020193>
44. LEŠČEŠEN, I., ŠRAJ, M., BASARIN, B., PAVIĆ, D., MESAROŠ, M., MUDELSEE, M. (2022): Regional flood frequency analysis of the Sava River in south-eastern Europe. Sustainability, 14, 9282, 1−19. <https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159282>
45. MANN, H.B. (1945): Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13, 245−259. <https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187>
46. MARTIĆ-BURSAĆ, N., STRIČEVIĆ, Lj., NIKOLIĆ, M., IVANOVIĆ, R. (2016): Statistical analysis of average, high and low waters of the Toplica River. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 96, 1, 26−45. <https://doi.org/10.2298/GSGD1601026M>
47. MARTINENKO, A., JEVREMOVIĆ, V., VRANIĆ, P., POPOVIĆ, J., PEJIĆ, M. (2021): Statistical tests and their application in geodesy. Technology, Our Civil Engineering, 75, 147−154. <https://doi.org/10.5937/tehnika2102147M>
48. MASSERONI, D., CAMICI, S., CISLAGHI, A., VACCHIANO, G., MASSARI, C., BROCCA, L. (2021): The 63-year changes in annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25, 5589−5601. <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021>
49. MILANOVIĆ-PEŠIĆ, A. (2020). Hydrological aspects of the floods in the Kolubara River basin (Serbia) – analyses and flood mitigation measures. In: Nedkov, S. et al. (eds.): Smart Geography. Springer, Cham, 117−127. <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-28191-5_10>
50. MILANOVIĆ-PEŠIĆ, A., JAKOVLJEVIĆ, D., RAJČEVIĆ, V., GNJATO, S. (2025): Assessment of hydroclimatic trends in southeast Europe – examples from two adjacent countries (Bosnia & Herzegovina and Serbia). Időjárás, 129, 1, 69−87. <https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2025.1.5>
51. MORLOT, M., BRILLY, M., ŠRAJ, M. (2019): Characterisation of the floods in the Danube River basin through flood frequency and seasonality analysis. Acta Hydrotechnica, 32, 57, 73−89. <https://doi.org/10.15292/acta.hydro.2019.06>
52. NOTO, L., LA LOGGIA, G. (2009): Use of L-moments approach for regional flood frequency analysis in Sicily, Italy. Water Resources Management, 23, 2207−2229. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9378-x>
53. PARAJKA, J., KOHNOVAB, S., BALINTH, G., BARBUCF, M., BORGAE, M., CLAPSI, P., CHEVALD, S., DUMITRESCUD, A., GAUMEC, E., HLAVCOVAB, K., MERZA, R., PFAUNDLERG, M., STANCALIED, G., SZOLGAYB, J., BLOSCHLA, G. (2010): Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range. Journal og Hydrology, 394, 1−2, 1−13. <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.05.015>
54. PETROVIĆ, A.M., LEŠČEŠEN, I., RADEVSKI, I. (2024): Unveiling torrential flood dynamics: a comprehensive study of spatio-temporal patterns in the Šumadija Region, Serbia. Water, 16, 7, 991, 1−19. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w16070991>
55. QGIS Development Team (2023): Quantum GIS (QGIS) 3.40. Open-source GIS software for spatial data entry, analysis and visualization. https://qgis.org (18. 1. 2026).
56. RADEVSKI, I., GORIN, S. (2017): Floodplain analysis for different return periods of river Vardar in Tikvesh valley (Republic of Macedonia). Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 12, 1, 179−187.
57. RADEVSKI, I., GORIN, S., TALESKA, M., DMITROVSKA, O. (2018): Natural regime of streamflow trends in Macedonia. Geografie, 123, 1−20. <https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie2018123010001>
58. RAHMAN, A.S., RAHMAN, A., ZAMAN, M.A., HADDAD, K., AHSAN, A., IMTEAZ, M. (2013): A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia. Natural Hazards, 69, 3, 1803−1813. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0775-y>
59. RHMSS (2023): Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, https://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ (10. 12. 2024).
60. SAHU, R., KANT VERMA, M., AHMAD, I. (2022): Regional frequency analysis using L-moment methodology – a eview, In: Pathak, K.K. et al. (eds.): Recent trends in civil engineering. Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd., Singapore, 811−832. <https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5195-6_60>
61. SAMANTARAY, S., SAHOO, A. (2020): Estimation of flood frequency using statistical method: Mahanadi River basin, India. H2Open Journal, 3, 1, 189−207. <https://doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2020.004>
62. SEN, P.K. (1968): Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 324, 1379−1389. <https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934>
63. SHAH, I.A., PAN DAS, N. (2024): Evaluation of probability distribution methods for flood frequency analysis in the Jhelum basin of north-western Himalayas, India. Cleaner Water, 2, 1−14. <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clwat.2024.100044>
64. SMITH, A., SAMPSON, C., BATES, P. (2015): Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale. WaterResources Researsh, 51, 539−553. <https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015814>
65. SNIZHKO, S., BERTOLA, M., OVCHARUK, V., SHEVCHENKO, O., DIDOVETS, I., BLOSCHL, G. (2023): Climate impact on flood changes – an Austrian-Ukrainian comparison. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 71, 3, 271−282. <https://doi.org/10.2478/johh-2023-0017>
66. SORS (2021): Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. http://www.stat.gov.rs (5. 7. 2025).
67. STAGL, J., HATTERMANN, F. (2015): Impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Danube River and Its tributaries using an ensemble of climate scenarios. Water, 7, 6139−6172. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w7116139>
68. STOJKOVIĆ, M., KOSTIĆ, S., PROHASKA, S., PLAVŠIĆ, J., TRIPKOVIĆ, V. (2017): A new approach for trend assessment of annual streamflows: a case study of hydropower plants in Serbia. Water Resources Management, 31, 4, 1089−1103. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1583-z>
69. STRIČEVIĆ, LJ. (2015): Water resources of Rasina county and their impact on regional development. PhD thesis, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics, University of Niš.
70. STRIČEVIĆ, LJ., MARTIĆ-BURSAĆ, N., GOCIĆ, M. (2024): Trend analysis of temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Rasina river basin, Serbia. VI Congress of Macedonian Geographers with International Participation, Macedonian Geographical Society, 29.−30. 5. 2024. <https://doi.org/10.37658/MGD24021s>
71. TRAMBLAY, Y., MIMEAU, L., NEPPEL, l., VINET, F., SAUQUET, E. (2019): Detection and attribution of flood trends in Mediterranean basins. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 4419−4431. <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019>
72. UNDRR (2025): Floods. In: Global Assessment Report 2025. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, https://www.undrr.org/gar/gar2025/hazard-exploration/floods (10. 5. 2024).
73. UROŠEV, M., LEŠČEŠEN, I., ŠTRBAC, D., DOLINAJ, D. (2016): Extreme hydrological situations on Danube River: Case study Bezdan Hydrological Station (Serbia). In Proceedings of the 4th IAHR European Congress, Ličge, Belgium. International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.
74. USGS (n.d.): SRTM Digital Elevation Data, https://www.earthexplorer.usgs.gov (18. 1. 2026).
75. VARLAS, G., PAPADAKI, C., STEFANIDIS, K., MENTZAFOU, A., PECHLIVANIDIS, I., PAPADOPOULOS, A., DIMITRIOU, E. (2023): Increasing trends in discharge maxima of a Mediterranean River during early autumn. Water, 15, 1022. <https://doi.org/10.3390/w15061022>
76. VASILEVSKI, D., RADEVSKI, I. (2014): Analysis of high waters on the Kriva Reka River, Macedonia, Acta Geographica Slovenica, 54, 2, 363−377. <https://doi.org/10.3986/AGS54209>
77. VUJOVIĆ, R. (1995): Waters of Serbia – development plans and several realizations in water management. IRO Building Book, Belgrade.
78. ZAKARIA, Z.A., SHABRI, A. (2013): Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfalls using partial L-moments method. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 1−2, 83–94. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0763-2>
front cover

ISSN 1212-0014 (Print) ISSN 2571-421X (Online)

Archive