Geografie 2025, 130, 339-368
https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie.2025.012
Drought, hunger, and migration: A retrospect of North China from the mid-18th century to the early 20th century
Diyang Zhang1
, Siyu Chen2,3, Rüdiger Glaser1, Xiuqi Fang4,5
, Siyu Chen2,3, Rüdiger Glaser1, Xiuqi Fang4,5
1University of Freiburg, Institute of Environmental Social Sciences and Geography, Physical Geography, Freiburg, Germany
2University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Bern, Switzerland
3University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland
4Beijing Normal University, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing, China
5Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing, China
Received March 2025
Accepted August 2025
References
1. AMERICAN NATIONAL RED CROSS (1921): Report of the China famine relief, American Red Cross, October, 1920 – September, 1921. America National Red Cross, Shanghai.
2. BANSAL, H.S., TAYLOR, S.F., JAMES, Y.S. (2005): “Migrating” to new service providers: toward a unifying framework of consumers’ switching behaviors. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1, 33, 96–115.
<https://doi.org/10.1177/0092070304267928>
3. BENSON, L., PETERSEN, K., STEIN, J. (2007): Anasazi (pre-columbian native-american) migrations during the middle-12th and late-13th centuries – were they drought induced? Climatic Change, 1–2, 83, 187–213.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9065-y>
4. BERLINER TAGEBLATT (1911a): Berliner Tageblatt und Handels-Zeitung, edition from 23.07.1911, https://zefys.staatsbibliothek-berlin.de/list/title/zdb/27646518/-/1911/#jul (10.2.2025).
5. BERLINER TAGEBLATT (1911b): Berliner Tageblatt und Handels-Zeitung, edition from 01.08.1911, https://zefys.staatsbibliothek-berlin.de/list/title/zdb/27646518/-/1911/#aug (10.2.2025).
6. BERLINER TAGEBLATT (1921): Berliner Tageblatt und Handels-Zeitung, edition from 30.07.1921, https://zefys.staatsbibliothek-berlin.de/list/title/zdb/27646518/-/1921/#jul (1.3.2023).
7. BOGUE, D.J. (1969): Principles of demography. Wiley, New York.
8. BUNDESANSTALT FÜR GEWÄSSERKUNDE (2025): Undine: Information platform on hydrological extreme events (floods, low flow), https://undine.bafg.de/index_en.html (16.7.2025).
9. CAI, Q. (2018): The China disaster annals: Republic of China volume. China Social Sciences Publishing House, Beijing.
10. CAO, S. (1997): History of migrations in China (volume 6). Fujian People’s Publishing House, Fuzhou.
11. CHINESE ACADEMY OF METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCES (1981): Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period. SinoMaps Press, Beijing.
12. DAILY HERALD (1911): Cheaper Food, edition from 20.09.1911, https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/105336442/10495690 (18.7.2025).
13. DAMETTE, O., GOUTTE, S., PEI, Q. (2020): Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China. Climatic Change, 4, 163, 2055–2071.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02901-4>
14. DE HAAS, H. (2021): A theory of migration: the aspirations-capabilities framework. Comparative Migration Studies, 1, 9, 8.
<https://doi.org/10.1186/s40878-020-00210-4>
15. DING, Y. (2008): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Comprehensive volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
16. DING, Y., WANG, S., ZHENG, J., WANG, H., YANG, X. (2013): China natural geography monograph series: Chinese climate. Science Press, Beijing.
17. DRAKE, B.L. (2017): Changes in north atlantic oscillation drove population migrations and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. Scientific Reports, 1, 7, 1227.
<https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01289-z>
18. ESTOK, S.C. (2023): Climate change and migration. Neohelicon, 1, 50, 239–251.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11059-023-00686-w>
19. ESTOQUE, R.C., OOBA, M., TOGAWA, T., YOSHIOKA, A., GOMI, K., NAKAMURA, S., TSUJI, T., HIJIOKA, Y., WATANABE, M., KITAHASHI, M. (2022): Climate impact chains for envisaging climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation issues. Regional Environmental Change, 4, 22, 133.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01982-4>
20. FALCO, C., DONZELLI, F., OLPER, A. (2018): Climate change, agriculture and migration: a survey. Sustainability, 5, 10, 1405.
<https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051405>
21. X., HE F., WU Z., ZHENG J. (2021): General characteristics of the agricultural area and fractional cropland cover changes in China for the past 2000 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 7, 76, 1732–1746.
22. FANG, X., SU, Y., YIN, J., TENG, J. (2015): Transmission of climate change impacts from temperature change to grain harvests, famines and peasant uprisings in the historical China. Science China Earth Sciences, 8, 58, 1427–1439.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-015-5075-9>
23. , X., ZHAO, W., SONG, R., CHEN, S., YE, Y. (2020): The integrated natural disaster information system of the Qing Dynasty. The Social History Research Journal, 1, 29–46.
24. FAR EASTERN GEOGRAPHICAL ESTABLISHMENT, DINGLE, J.E. (1917): Railway Map of China. (inset) Sketch Map of Manchuria. North-China Daily News & Herald, Ltd., Shanghai.
25. FREIBURGER ZEITUNG (1921a): Freiburg 1784–1943, edition from 10.8.1921, https://fz.ub.uni-freiburg.de/show/fz.cgi?cmd=showmonth&year=1921&month=08&project=3 (1.3.2023).
26. FREIBURGER ZEITUNG (1921b): Freiburg 1784–1943, edition from 11.8.1921, https://fz.ub.uni-freiburg.de/show/fz.cgi?cmd=showmonth&year=1921&month=08&project=3 (1.3.2023).
27. FREIBURGER ZEITUNG (1921c): Freiburg 1784–1943, edition from 13.8.1921, https://fz.ub.uni-freiburg.de/show/fz.cgi?cmd=showmonth&year=1921&month=08&project=3 (1.3.2023).
28. FUERTE CELIS, M.D.P., BOLAŃOS GUERRA, B., OLIVERA-VILLARROEL, S.M. (2024): Drought: the silent evil of Central American migration in the period 1990 to 2019. Estudios Fronterizos, 25.
<https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2403139>
29. FULLER, P. (2013): North China famine revisited: unsung native relief in the Warlord Era, 1920–1921. Modern Asian Studies, 3, 47, 820–850.
<https://doi.org/10.1017/S0026749X12000534>
30. GE, J. (1997): History of migrations in China (volume 1). Fujian People’s Publishing House, Fuzhou.
31. GILBERT, G., MCLEMAN, R. (2010): Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s. Population and Environment, 1, 32, 3–26.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-010-0112-2>
32. GIZ (2018): Climate risk assessment for ecosystem-based adaptation – a guidebook for planners and practitioners. GIZ, Bonn.
33. GLASER, R., HIMMELSBACH, I., BÖSMEIER, A. (2017): Climate of migration? How climate triggered migration from southwest Germany to North America during the 19th century. Climate of the Past, 11, 13, 1573–1592.
<https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1573-2017>
34. GLASER, R., KAHLE, M. (2020): Reconstructions of droughts in Germany since 1500 – combining hermeneutic information and instrumental records in historical and modern perspectives. Climate of the Past, 4, 16, 1207–1222.
<https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1207-2020>
35. GRAY, C., HOPPING, D., MUELLER, V. (2020): The changing climate-migration relationship in China, 1989–2011. Climatic Change, 1, 160, 103–122.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02657-x>
36. GUTMANN, M. P., BROWN, D., CUNNINGHAM, A.R., DYKES, J., LEONARD, S.H., LITTLE, J., MIKECZ, J., RHODE, P.W., SPIELMAN, S., SYLVESTER, K.M. (2016): Migration in the 1930s: beyond the Dust Bowl. Social Science History, 4, 40, 707–740.
<https://doi.org/10.1017/ssh.2016.28>
37. GUTMANN, M.P., DEANE, G.D., LAUSTER, N., PERI, A. (2005): Two population-environment regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Population and Environment, 2, 27, 191–225.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-006-0016-3>
38. HAN, J., YANG, Y. (2021): The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century. Climatic Change, 3–4, 164, 26.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02972-x>
39. HAO, Z., ZHENG, J., WU, G., ZHANG, X., GE, Q. (2010): 1876–1878 severe drought in North China: facts, impacts and climatic background. Chinese Science Bulletin, 26, 55, 3001–3007.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-3243-z>
40. HERMANS, K., GARBE, L. (2019): Droughts, livelihoods, and human migration in northern Ethiopia. Regional Environmental Change, 4, 19, 1101–1111.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01473-z>
41. HERSHATTER, G. (1986): The workers of Tianjin 1900-1949. Stanford University Press, Stanford.
42. HOGGARTH, J.A., RESTALL, M., WOOD, J.W., KENNETT, D.J. (2017): Drought and its demographic effects in the Maya Lowlands. Current Anthropology, 1, 58, 82–113.
<https://doi.org/10.1086/690046>
43. HUNGERLAND, W.-F., WOLF, N. (2022): The panopticon of Germany’s foreign trade, 1880–1913: New facts on the first globalization. European Review of Economic History, 4, 26, 479–507.
<https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heac001>
44. IPCC (2021): Climate change 2021 – the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
45. IPCC (2022): Climate change 2022 – impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
46. IVANOVA, A., SINGH, D., RAI, P., RICHARDS, C., VASCONCELOS, H., GOLDSBY, M. (2024): Climate hazards and human migration: literature review. Environmental Research: Climate, 4, 3, 042002.
<https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad6fc4>
47. JACKSON, J.A. (1986): Migration (aspects of modern sociology: social processes). Longman, London and New York.
48. JENNINGS, J.A., GRAY, C.L. (2015): Climate variability and human migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937. Population and Environment, 3, 36, 255–278.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0218-z>
49. KACZAN, D.J., ORGILL-MEYER, J. (2020): The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights. Climatic Change, 3–4, 158, 281–300.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0>
50. KONG, Q., GUERREIRO, S.B., BLENKINSOP, S., LI, X.-F., FOWLER, H.J. (2020): Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in Eastern China. Weather and Climate Extremes, 28, 100242.
<https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100242>
51. LAMBUTH, W.R. (1921): China famine conditions: which I have just seen. American Committee for China Famine Fund, New York.
52. LEE, E.S. (1966): A theory of migration. Demography, 3, 47–57.
<https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063>
53. LEWIS, G.J. (1982): Human migration: A geographical perspective. Routledge, London.
54. LI, L. M. (2007): Fighting famine in North China: state, market, and environmental decline, 1690s–1990s. Standford University Press, Stanford.
<https://doi.org/10.1515/9781503625686>
55. LI, W. (1993): The continuation of disaster annals in recent China 1919–1949. Hunan Education Publishing House, Changsha.
56. LI, W., CHENG, X., LIU, Y., XIA, M. (1994): The tenth greatest disasters in early modern Chin. Shanghai People’s Press, Shanghai.
57. LIU, Q. (2005): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Shanxi volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
58. LUMPE, C., LUMPE, C. (2017): German emigration via Bremen in the Weimar Republic (1920−1932). Working Paper 53–2017. MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics.
59. , Y. (2016): The opening of contemporary railways and rural migration in North China. Journal of Zhengzhou University, 2, 49, 112–116.
60. MCLEMAN, R. (2018): Thresholds in climate migration. Population and Environment, 4, 39, 319–338.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2>
61. MCLEMAN, R., FONTANELLA, F., GREIG, C., HEATH, G., ROBERTSON, C. (2022): Population responses to the 1976 South Dakota drought: insights for wider drought migration research. Population, Space and Place, 2, 28, e2465.
<https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2465>
62. MENK, L., TERZI, S., ZEBISCH, M., ROME, E., LÜCKERATH, D., MILDE, K., KIENBERGER, S. (2022): Climate Change Impact Chains: A Review of Applications, Challenges, and Opportunities for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments.
<https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0014.1>
63. MERCHANT, E.K., GRACE, K. (2024): Attending to history in climate change–demography research. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, VYPR 2024, 2024.
<https://doi.org/10.1553/p-hzdz-jega>
64. MOON, B. (1995): Paradigms in migration research: exploring “moorings” as a schema. Progress in Human Geography, 4, 19, 504–524.
<https://doi.org/10.1177/030913259501900404>
65. MORSE, H.B. (2006): The international relations of the Chinese Empire. Shanghai Bookstore Publishing House, Shanghai.
66. NEES, G., KEHRER, H. (2002): Alzenauer Wetterchronik. Die interessantesten Wetterereignisse in Alzenau, im Kahlgrund und am Untermain von 265 bis 1999. Keim, Weil der Stadt.
67. NEUE HAMBURGER ZEITUNG (1911): Neue Hamburger Zeitung, edition from 1.8.1911, https://www.europeana.eu/de/item/9200338/BibliographicResource_3000094605007 (17.7.2025)
68. PANG, T. (2005): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Henan volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
69. PEI, Q., ZHANG, D.D. (2014): Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China. Ecology and Society, 2, 19, art68.
<https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06528-190268>
70. QUIŃONES, E.J., LIEBENEHM, S., SHARMA, R. (2021): Left home high and dry-reduced migration in response to repeated droughts in Thailand and Vietnam. Population and Environment, 4, 42, 579–621.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-021-00374-w>
71. RIGAUD, K., KANTA, DE SHERBININ, A., JONES, B., BERGMANN, J., CLEMENT, V., OBER, K., SCHEWE, J., ADAMO, S., MCCUSKER, B., HEUSER, S., MIDGLEY, A. (2018): Groundswell: preparing for internal climate migration. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
<https://doi.org/10.1596/29461>
72. STATISTISCHES REICHSAMT (1890): Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich (1890). Schmidt, Berlin.
73. STATISTISCHES REICHSAMT (1900): Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich (1900). Schmidt, Berlin.
74. STATISTISCHES REICHSAMT (1910): Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich (1910). Schmidt, Berlin.
75. STATISTISCHES REICHSAMT (1933): Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich (1933). Schmidt, Berlin.
76. TAO, L., SU, Y., CHEN, X., TIAN, F. (2024a): Processes, spatial patterns, and impacts of the 1743 extreme-heat event in northern China: from the perspective of historical documents. Climate of the Past, 11, 20, 2455–2471.
<https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2455-2024>
77. TAO, L., SU, Y., CHEN, X., TIAN, F., GONG, Z. (2024b): How has ancient china responded differentially to the long and short timescale climate extremes? Case of the drought and heatwave in 1743. Natural Hazards, 15, 120, 14625–14647.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06799-4>
78. , L., SU, Y., KANG, Y. (2021): Reconstruction and analysis of chronology of high temperature events in eastern China during Ming and Qing dynasties. Journal of Palaeogeography, 02, 23, 449–460.
79. VAN DER SCHRIER, G., ALLAN, R. P., OSSÓ, A., SOUSA, P. M., VAN DE VYVER, H., VAN SCHAEYBROECK, B., COSCARELLI, R., PASQUA, A.A., PETRUCCI, O., CURLEY, M., MIETUS, M., FILIPIAK, J., ŠTĚPÁNEK, P., ZAHRADNÍČEK, P., BRÁZDIL, R., ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ, L., VAN DEN BESSELAAR, E.J.M., TRIGO, R., AGUILAR, E. (2021): The 1921 European drought: impacts, reconstruction and drivers. Climate of the Past, 5, 17, 2201–2221.
<https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021>
80. WANG, J., SUN, D. (2006): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Shandong volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
81. WANG, Z. (2008): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Tianjin volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
82. WORSTER, D. (2004): Dust Bowl: The Southern Plains in the 1930s. Oxford University Press, New York.
83. XIA, M. (2000): Natural disasters and rural society in the Republic of China. Zhonghua Book Company, Beijing.
84. , M. (2015): Big data and ecological history: the compilation and database construction of the historical sources of Chinese disaster history in an information age. The Qing History Journal, 2, 67–82.
85. XIAO, L. (2020): Disasters and the social ecology of the North China Plain in Qing Dynasty. Science Press, Beijing.
86. , L., HUANG, H., WEI, Z. (2012): Comparison of governmental relief food scheduling and social consequences during drought of 1743–1744 AD and 1876–1878 AD in North China. Journal of Catastrophology, 1, 27, 101–106.
87. XIE, P. (2005): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Beijing volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
88. , L. (2000): Population Changes and Migration in Rural North China in the Modern Era – A Reconsideration of Zongzhi Huang’s Theory of “Involution”. Historical Research, 4, 17–25.
89. YANG, Z. (1996): China historical population data and the relevant studies. China reform publishing houses, Beijing.
90. ZANG, J. (2007): The China meteorological disaster dictionary: Hebei volume. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
91. ZHAI, X., FANG, X., SU, Y. (2020): Regional interactions in social responses to extreme climate events: a case study of the North China Famine of 1876–1879. Atmosphere, 4, 11, 393.
<https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040393>
92. ZHANG, D. (2013): A compendium of Chinese meteorological records of the last 3,000 years. Jiangsu Education Publishing House, Nanjing.
93. ZHANG, D., DEMARÉE, G. (2004): Extreme summer heat in North China in 1743: a study of historical hot summer events in a relatively warm climate. Chinese Science Bulletin, 21, 49, 2204–2210.
<https://doi.org/10.1360/04wd0260>
94. ZHANG, X., WANG, F., LU, W., LI, S., ZHENG, J. (2022): Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953. Science China Earth Sciences, 2, 65, 365–378.
<https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-020-9866-2>
95. ZHENG, G., JIAO, M., DING, Y., SONG, L. (2019): China climate. China Meteorological Press, Beijing.
96. ZHENG, J., YU, Y., ZHANG, X., HAO, Z. (2018): Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years. Climate of the Past, 8, 14, 1135–1145.
<https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1135-2018>
