Geografie 2025, 130, 299-320
Climate change and migration across the Great Wall of China during the Little Ice Age
, Yuran Su1, Lingyu Fan1, Qing Pei1,2, Pi-Ling Pai3, Dongmei Jiang4
1The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong SAR
2The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Department of Chinese History and Culture, Hong Kong SAR
3Academia Sinica, Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan
4Zhengzhou University of Technology, Zhengzhou, China
Received March 2025
Accepted July 2025
This study examines migration across the Great Wall of China in response to climate change in Chinese history during the Little Ice Age (1500−1850 ad) and assesses the effectiveness of the Great Wall as a barrier based on the push-pull theory. It empirically analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns of migration across the Great Wall based on datasets on precipitation, temperature, population size, and migration events. Here we show that more migration events occurred during the cooling climate period. Furthermore, more migrants came from farther north to cross the Great Wall during dry periods. These results imply the general ineffectiveness of the Great Wall in blocking migration. The findings serve as a reminder that if human survival is threatened (e.g., by climatic events), barriers may not successfully block migration. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness of barriers in accordance with the stressors of migration is important when applying the push-pull model.
Keywords
climate change, migration, barrier, push-pull theory, Great Wall of China.
Funding
The research has been generously supported by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong SAR under Humanities and Social Sciences Prestigious Fellowship Scheme [Ref. No. 38000322]; “Climate Reconstruction and Impacts from the Archives of Societies”, a working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project; Cooperative Research Plan for Overseas Experts in Zhengzhou City, Henan Province; the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Strategic Hiring Scheme [Ref. No. P0048587] and the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Internal Research Fund [Ref. No. P0051110].
