Geografie 2020, 125, 1-20
COVID-19 pandemic spread across geographical and social borders: Can we face it?
, Jan Jarolímek
Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Social Geography and Regional Development, Prague, Czechia
Received March 2020
Accepted March 2020
The global health threat of the novel coronavirus virus SARS-CoV-2 has been the most severe virus since the (A) H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918–1920. The aim of this paper is to document the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, on the basis of daily WHO and Chinese CDC data, from the time of the first recorded outbreak of the epidemic. Furthermore, the aim of the paper, based on knowledge of the epidemic cycle in the province of Hubei, is to attempt to simulate the future development of the epidemic in the Czech population. According to the optimistic prediction model, it is expected that the epidemic peak could occur in Czechia in mid-April with a daily number of 700–750 new cases. The total number of people with confirmed disease could reach roughly 20,000 (20% of people may experience serious health complications). The conclusion of the article points to the need for Czechia to build its own infrastructure to cover the needs of the state – especially in the areas of preparedness of medical facilities, medical staff, and the availability of protective equipment and medicines.
Keywords
pandemic, COVID-19, global threat, health systems readiness, epidemiological situation, geographical or social inequalities, incidence, prediction, fatality rate.
