Geografie 2016, 121, 324-347

Tragedy of small power politics: geostrategic perspectives of Czechia through the lenses of offensive neorealism

Jan Kofroň

Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Political Studies, Department of Politology, Prague, Czechia

Received March 2015
Accepted December 2015

The article introduces theoretically deduced scenarios as an interesting method promising an enhanced practical relevance for social geography. The importance of scenarios is given by their affinity to planning, decision-making and their central position in countless public debates. The article illustrates the promises and deficiencies of scenario-building efforts by constructing scenarios of the Czech geopolitical future. The scenarios, which are based on the theory of offensive neorealism, show that in the case of U.S. withdrawal from Europe, Czechia will face a highly competitive and dangerous geopolitical environment. Unfortunately, if China continues to grow, such a future seems to be (according to the theory) inevitable. Offensive neorealism allows to identify the crucial factors of Czechia’s current security situation and to outline the main contours of its geopolitical future. As a result, the theory provides an interesting springboard for a theoretical and application development of classical geopolitics.


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