Geografie 2014, 119, 1-25

https://doi.org/10.37040/geografie2014119010001

Application of spatial weather generator for the assessment of climate change impacts on a river runoff

Leszek Kuchar1, Sławomir Iwański1, Leszek Jelonek2, Wiwiana Szalińska2

1Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Science, Department of Mathematics, Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wroclaw, Poland
2Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute, Parkowa 30, 51-616 Wroclaw, Poland

Received February 2013
Accepted February 2014

In this study, the impacts of climate change on streamflow are investigated. The ensemble of outputs from three different Global Circulation Models models: GISS, CCCM, GFDL developed for the emission scenario A1B were analyzed to infer projected changes in climatological conditions for the region of the Upper and Middle Odra basin. Obtaining hydrological scenarios of future changes for the scale of subcatchment required simulating short-term and fine scaled weather patterns for this area. SWGEN model (Spatial Weather GENerator) was applied to downscale projected changes of climatological conditions to the ones required by hydrological model temporal and spatial resolution. Daily time series of solar radiation, temperature and precipitation were generated for the reference period 1981–2000 and for the time horizon 2030 and 2050. The generated data from SWGEN model were integrated in the hydrological model NAM to simulate streamflow under changed conditions with daily time step. The results show considerable changes in annual and seasonal runoff daily distributions for selected study catchment in the future time horizons of 2030 and 2050.

Funding

Funding was provided by Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Grant 600/B/P01/2010/39).

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